Johnson Matthey forecasts the palladium market moving into a 214,000-ounce surplus in 2026, its first surplus since 2021 on Johnson Matthey's own series, in its PGM Market Report of 14 May 2026. That reversal follows a 416,000-ounce deficit in 2025 on Johnson Matthey's own basis, while Metals Focus, published via the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), puts the 2025 deficit far larger, at 1,069,000 ounces, on a different definitional basis. Mine and recycled supply, automotive demand and the venues where palladium trades set the shape of this market, distinct from palladium's live price.
What Is the Palladium Market?#
The palladium market is the primary and secondary metal that meets automotive, industrial, jewelry and investment demand for palladium (Pd), tracked annually by Johnson Matthey and by WPIC/Metals Focus. Palladium is one of six metals inside the wider platinum group metals market, the family that also includes platinum, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium and osmium. Three questions set the shape of that market below: how much palladium mines and recyclers supply, which sectors buy it, and whether supply and demand leave a surplus or a deficit.
Palladium Supply: Mine Production and Recycling#
Johnson Matthey puts 2026 primary palladium supply at 6,032koz and secondary (recycled) supply at 3,427koz, for combined supply of 9,459koz, in its PGM Market Report of 14 May 2026. Primary supply comes from mines in South Africa, Russia, North America and Zimbabwe, while secondary supply recovers palladium from spent autocatalysts, electrical scrap and jewelry. Recycled supply has grown from 2,853koz in 2023 to a forecast 3,427koz in 2026, mostly from spent automotive catalysts. The table below lists Johnson Matthey's primary and secondary palladium supply for 2024 to 2026.
| Source (koz) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026f |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 2,438 | 2,246 | 2,235 |
| Russia | 3,000 | 2,950 | 2,450 |
| North America | 819 | 712 | 660 |
| Zimbabwe | 419 | 422 | 424 |
| Other | 252 | 259 | 263 |
| Total primary supply | 6,928 | 6,589 | 6,032 |
| Secondary, automotive | 2,447 | 2,657 | 2,945 |
| Secondary, electrical and other | 464 | 467 | 470 |
| Secondary, jewelry | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Total secondary supply | 2,921 | 3,135 | 3,427 |
| Combined supply | 9,849 | 9,724 | 9,459 |
Source: Johnson Matthey, PGM Market Report, 14 May 2026.
Palladium Demand: Automotive, Industrial, Jewelry and Investment#
Palladium demand comes from five sectors: automotive catalysts, chemical, dental and biomedical, electrical and electronics, and investment, with automotive taking 7,829koz of Johnson Matthey's 9,245koz forecast 2026 total, about 85%. The five sectors break down as follows, on the same 2026 forecast.
- Automotive catalysts: three-way catalysts for gasoline vehicles, forecast at 7,829koz.
- Chemical: process and specialty catalysts, forecast at 529koz.
- Dental and biomedical: dental alloys and medical equipment, forecast at 151koz.
- Electrical and electronics: multilayer ceramic capacitors and connectors, forecast at 538koz.
- Investment: bars, coins and exchange-traded funds, forecast at a net 115koz outflow.
Jewelry, pollution control and other uses make up the remaining 198koz of the 2026 total. The table below adds 2024 and 2025 for comparison.
| Sector (koz) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026f |
|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | 8,329 | 8,227 | 7,829 |
| Chemical | 522 | 519 | 529 |
| Dental and biomedical | 172 | 163 | 151 |
| Electrical and electronics | 516 | 535 | 538 |
| Investment | 229 | 382 | -115 |
| Jewelry | 85 | 83 | 82 |
| Pollution control | 131 | 131 | 139 |
| Other | 83 | 100 | 92 |
| Total demand | 10,067 | 10,140 | 9,245 |
Source: Johnson Matthey, PGM Market Report, 14 May 2026.
Palladium Market Balance: Surplus or Deficit?#
Johnson Matthey's May 2026 report forecasts a 214koz palladium surplus for 2026, reversing a 416koz 2025 deficit on its own basis; Metals Focus, published via WPIC's Platinum Essentials of 11 June 2026, puts the 2025 deficit at 1,069koz on a different definitional basis, 653koz larger than Johnson Matthey's figure. Both houses agree on direction: Johnson Matthey and WPIC both forecast palladium moving toward surplus from 2026 to 2030, reversing three straight years of deficit. Johnson Matthey attributes the 2026 swing mainly to a sharp fall in Russian shipments, citing Norilsk Nickel's own guidance of 2.42 to 2.47 million ounces of palladium in 2026, a 10 to 11% decline on 2025 that Norilsk calls the lowest total since at least 2005.
How Palladium Is Traded: the LPPM, Futures and Base Prices#
The London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) is the trade body for London's wholesale platinum and palladium market, whose twice-daily benchmark auction has been administered by ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) since 1 July 2026, after the London Metal Exchange administered it through 30 June 2026. Founded in 1987, the LPPM sets the Good Delivery specification for the market's bars and plates, underpinning the LBMA platinum and palladium prices that IBA now administers. Palladium sponge trades separately, at Johnson Matthey base prices reset several times each business day, a producer quote rather than an auction result. Palladium also trades in China on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX), which launched CNY-denominated, physically settled platinum and palladium futures on 27 November 2025, according to WPIC.
Is There a "Palladium Stock"? Futures, ETFs and Mining Shares#
Palladium has no equity ticker of its own: exposure comes through futures, ETFs or mining shares instead. Four routes carry that exposure: NYMEX palladium futures, GFEX futures in China, palladium ETFs that hold physical metal, or shares in a palladium-producing mining company such as Nornickel or Sibanye-Stillwater. Search interest in a "palladium stock" or "stock market palladium" points to one of these four routes rather than a single listed security.
Palladium Market Capitalization: How It Is Calculated#
A "palladium market cap" is not a market capitalization in the equity sense; palladium has no shares outstanding. Multiplying Johnson Matthey's 2025 combined supply of 9,724koz by the 2025 annual average price of US$1,100 per troy ounce (Engelhard unfabricated price, S&P Global Platts Metals Week, via USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026) gives an illustrative one-year supply value of roughly US$10.7 billion, not a live figure and not a real capitalization. Sites that publish a bare palladium market-cap number, such as companiesmarketcap.com, do not show this method or its inputs.
Who Supplies the Palladium Market? Russia, South Africa and North America#
Russia supplied 2,950koz of primary palladium in 2025, more than South Africa's 2,246koz or North America's 712koz on their own, according to Johnson Matthey's PGM Market Report of 14 May 2026. Nornickel is the Russian producer behind that supply, and its own guidance points to 2.42 to 2.47 million ounces of palladium in 2026, a decline Nornickel itself calls the lowest since at least 2005; Russian palladium supply and its sanctions exposure are covered separately. North America's 712koz comes mainly from Sibanye-Stillwater's US PGM operations in Montana, alongside a small byproduct stream from Michigan copper-nickel mining. The table below adds Zimbabwe and other producers for 2024 to 2026.
| Country/region (koz) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026f |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 3,000 | 2,950 | 2,450 |
| South Africa | 2,438 | 2,246 | 2,235 |
| North America | 819 | 712 | 660 |
| Zimbabwe | 419 | 422 | 424 |
| Other | 252 | 259 | 263 |
| Total primary supply | 6,928 | 6,589 | 6,032 |
Source: Johnson Matthey, PGM Market Report, 14 May 2026.
Johnson Matthey vs WPIC: Why Palladium Balance Estimates Differ#
Johnson Matthey and Metals Focus disagree on the size of the 2025 palladium deficit by 653koz (416koz against 1,069koz) because they count investment demand and Russian supply differently, and the two figures are never combined in one calculation. Metals Focus counts 623koz of 2025 investment demand, including exchange-stock and ETF movements, where Johnson Matthey counts 382koz and excludes exchange-stock changes entirely; the two houses' Russian supply estimates for 2025 also differ by 225koz. Both report their own methodology and figures through separate PGM market reports published across the year.
Palladium Price, News and Other PGM Markets#
Palladium's live price, market news and the other five PGM markets have dedicated pages, each built for its own query rather than folded into this market overview. The three sections below point to those pages.
Today's Palladium Price#
Today's palladium price, in ounces, grams and kilograms, is tracked on a dedicated live page, never restated here as a fixed number. Palladium price today carries the live spot quote, its bid and ask, and the day's change.
Palladium Market News and Reports#
DailyPlatinum's daily PGM market report and a dedicated page on Johnson Matthey, WPIC and Metals Focus reports cover new data as it publishes. Three kinds of report feed palladium market news.
- Daily price moves, covered in the daily PGM price and market report.
- Quarterly and annual balance updates from Johnson Matthey and WPIC/Metals Focus.
- Company guidance from Nornickel, Sibanye-Stillwater and other producers.
Other PGM Markets#
The other PGM markets, platinum, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium and osmium, have their own supply-demand pages. Platinum's production and recycling are covered by platinum producers and secondary platinum supply; the rhodium market, iridium market and ruthenium market each have a dedicated page. Osmium's market is small enough, at roughly 500 to 550kg a year worldwide, that DailyPlatinum has not yet built it a standalone market page.
| Metal | Symbol | Market page |
|---|---|---|
| Platinum | Pt | platinum producers, secondary platinum supply |
| Rhodium | Rh | rhodium market |
| Iridium | Ir | iridium market |
| Ruthenium | Ru | ruthenium market |
| Osmium | Os | Not yet published |
Palladium Market FAQ#
Is palladium a good investment now?#
No investment advice: both Johnson Matthey and WPIC/Metals Focus forecast palladium moving toward surplus from 2026 to 2027, a reversal after three years of deficit. Johnson Matthey's own figures show the swing from a 416koz 2025 deficit to a 214koz 2026 surplus; WPIC's Metals Focus-based figures show a smaller 91koz 2026 deficit narrowing toward surplus in 2027.
Why is palladium dropping?#
Palladium prices have fallen from their 2021-2022 highs because Russian and South African primary supply has stayed broadly stable while automotive palladium demand has declined, as automakers thrift metal per vehicle and substitute platinum for palladium in gasoline catalysts. Johnson Matthey's figures show automotive palladium demand falling from 8,451koz in 2021 to a forecast 7,829koz in 2026.
What are palladium's symbol, atomic number and CAS number?#
Palladium has the symbol Pd, atomic number 46 and CAS number 7440-05-3, with an atomic mass of 106.42 (PubChem). Palladium (Pd), element 46 covers its properties and uses in full.
Is it better to invest in platinum or palladium?#
Platinum and palladium have diverging 2026 balance forecasts: WPIC forecasts a 265koz platinum surplus for 2026, while Johnson Matthey forecasts a 214koz palladium surplus on its own, separate basis. Platinum and palladium compares price, properties and uses between the two metals; DailyPlatinum gives no investment advice.
Who is the biggest buyer of palladium?#
Automotive catalysts are palladium's largest buyer, taking 7,829koz of Johnson Matthey's forecast 9,245koz of 2026 total demand, about 85%. Three-way catalysts on gasoline vehicles use palladium to convert exhaust gases, the single application that drives most of the palladium market's demand side.