The Platinum Market Deficit: Size, Causes and Duration (4 Forecasters Compared)

The platinum (Pt; atomic number 78; CAS 7440-06-4) market ran a deficit of over 1.4 million troy ounces (over 43 tonnes) in 2025, according to the World Platinum Investment Council's (WPIC) Platinum Quarterly of 9 September 2026, the third annual shortfall in a row on its data. The same report forecasts a 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026, while Johnson Matthey still counts 2026 as a fourth deficit year.

How Big Is the Platinum Market Deficit?#

The platinum deficit depends on the forecaster: WPIC (Metals Focus data) puts 2025 at a shortfall of over 1.4 Moz (over 43 tonnes) and forecasts a 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026, while Johnson Matthey (JM) counts a 915,000-ounce (28.5 t) 2025 deficit and forecasts a fourth deficit year for 2026.

Coverage of the platinum group metals market counts "three years of deficit" or a "fourth" deficit depending on the publisher quoted. The platinum group metals market overview places these balances beside supply and demand; here WPIC and JM figures keep separate tables and never share one calculation.

Platinum Market Balance by Year, 2016 to 2026 (WPIC and Metals Focus)#

WPIC's series shows platinum deficits in 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2024 and 2025 and surpluses in 2017, 2018, 2021 and 2022, on Metals Focus data from 2019 and SFA (Oxford) data before that. The table gives each year's balance with the edition it comes from.

Source: WPIC Platinum Quarterly (PQ); SFA data rounded to 5 koz; 2016 as printed (does not reconcile internally). 1 koz = 31.1035 kg.

WPIC's own footnote states that SFA and Metals Focus data "may not have been prepared on the same or directly comparable basis", so the step from 2018 to 2019 is a splice, not a trend.

Johnson Matthey's Platinum Balance: Four Deficit Years in a Row#

Johnson Matthey's PGM Market Report of 14 May 2026 records platinum deficits of 677,000 oz in 2023, 559,000 oz in 2024 and 915,000 oz in 2025, and forecasts a 371,000-oz deficit for 2026, a fourth consecutive year. JM calls its balance the "movement in stocks": combined supply from mines and recycling minus total demand. The table compares two editions.

Source: JM PGM Market Report, May 2025 and May 2026. Negative = deficit.

JM's May 2025 report put 2024 at a 774,000-oz deficit; one year later the same year stands at 559,000 oz, a revision of 215,000 oz (6.7 t). A platinum deficit quoted without its edition date can therefore be off by more than 200,000 oz.

Is the Platinum Market Still in Deficit in 2026?#

WPIC no longer forecasts a platinum deficit for 2026: its 9 September 2026 Platinum Quarterly expects a 265,000-oz (8.2 t) surplus, after a first-half surplus that Discovery Alert's summary of the report puts at 548,000 oz. The same summary puts the second half at a 283,000-oz deficit and the second quarter at a 244,000-oz surplus (supply 1,906,000 oz, demand 1,663,000 oz).

WPIC's release headline still stresses that "inventories remain critically depleted following three consecutive years of significant deficit". Johnson Matthey's forecast of 14 May 2026, made before the first half ended, remains a 371,000-oz deficit: the platinum market is in surplus on WPIC's latest data and in deficit on JM's.

What Is a Platinum Market Deficit?#

A platinum market deficit is a year in which total platinum demand exceeds total supply from mines and recycling, so the gap is met from existing above-ground stocks. A surplus is the reverse: unused metal flows into those stocks.

How the Platinum Balance Is Calculated#

The platinum balance is total supply (refined mine output plus recycling) minus total demand (automotive, industrial, jewelry and, at WPIC, investment). The five steps follow WPIC's table; JM uses producer sales instead of refined output.

1. Take mine supply: refined production, adjusted for producer inventory changes.
2. Add recycling: metal recovered from scrap, excluding process scrap.
3. Subtract fabrication demand: automotive, jewelry and industrial uses.
4. Subtract investment: bars and coins, Chinese large bars, ETFs and exchange stocks (WPIC only).
5. Read the sign: a negative result is a deficit, a positive result a surplus.

JM's 2025 figures show the arithmetic: combined supply of 7,104,000 oz minus total demand of 8,019,000 oz gives the 915,000-oz deficit (28.5 t). WPIC's data "are prepared independently for WPIC by Metals Focus", so the two are one dataset, not two confirmations.

Why Four Forecasters Publish Four Different Deficits#

Platinum forecasters disagree mainly because they treat investment differently: WPIC counts bars, coins, ETF and exchange-stock flows as demand, JM excludes exchange stocks, and SFA (Oxford) and BASF exclude investment entirely. The WPIC column is dated 9 September 2026; the other three are as WPIC republished them on 29 May 2026.

Four bases, not one series; no average is given.

Investment explains most of the spread. JM counted 556,000 oz of platinum investment demand in 2025; removing it gives a derived ex-investment balance of -359,000 oz, a smaller deficit than SFA's 650,000 oz and BASF's 581,000 oz on the same no-investment basis. The PGM market reports behind the table are compared on PGM market reports.

Where the Missing Ounces Come From: Above-Ground Stocks#

Above-ground stocks are WPIC's estimate of unpublished vaulted platinum from which a deficit can be supplied, excluding ETF metal, exchange stocks and working inventories. Nobody counts these bars. Metals Focus set one anchor estimate of 3,650,000 oz (113.5 t) at 31 December 2018 and rolls it forward each year by the annual balance, so every deficit lowers the figure and every revision to a past year changes all later years.

WPIC's 9 September 2026 edition expresses above-ground platinum stocks as 3.4 months of global demand cover at the end of 2026, rather than as an ounce level. Johnson Matthey publishes no stock level at all: its movement in stocks is a proxy for changes in metal held by fabricators, dealers, banks and depositories. The history of above-ground platinum stocks has its own page.

What Caused the Platinum Deficit?#

The 2023-2025 platinum deficits came from three sources: falling South African mine output, recycling that stayed below forecasts, and investment and Chinese buying on top of fabrication demand. The table lists the evidence.

Mine Supply: South African Output, Floods and Closures#

South African platinum supply fell just under 5% to 3.96 Moz in 2025, Johnson Matthey reports, after extreme first-quarter rainfall closed parts of Valterra's Amandelbult mine for several months. JM puts underlying mine production at about 3.86 Moz, down 3%, with a release of work-in-progress inventory making up the difference.

The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 estimate a 9% fall in South African PGM output in 2025, citing lower palladium prices, higher deep-level mining costs and "ongoing disruptions to the supply of electricity". Electricity also cost more: Eskom's standard tariff rose 12.74% from 1 April 2025 under NERSA's MYPD6 determination.

Sibanye-Stillwater opened Section 189A consultations on the Kwezi shaft at Rustenburg on 8 September 2026, with about 1,114 jobs at risk, according to Mining Weekly. Platinum mining in South Africa supplied 3,957,000 oz of JM's 5,557,000-oz primary platinum supply in 2025 (71%), which is why platinum mining in South Africa sets the size of the deficit more than any other region.

Recycling: The 12- to 16-Year Lag#

Platinum recycling responds slowly because vehicles reach scrapyards at an average age of 12 to 16 years (WPIC, 20 August 2025), so today's scrap reflects cars built around 2010-2014.

Recycling forecasts have also missed. WPIC stated on 29 May 2026 that since 2022 recycling growth "has consistently underperformed initial forecasts".

Metals Focus expects 1,826,000 oz (56.8 t) of recycling in 2026, up 9% (WPIC Platinum Quarterly, 18 May 2026). The share and feedstock of secondary platinum supply from recycling are tracked on secondary platinum supply from recycling.

Demand: Investment, Exchange Stocks and China#

Investment added 1,136,000 oz to WPIC's 2025 platinum demand (Platinum Quarterly Q1 2026, 18 May 2026), or 35.3 t. The four investment lines, listed below, add up rather than overlap.

• Bars and coins: 402,000 oz
• Chinese bars of 500 g and over: 165,000 oz
• ETF holdings: 185,000 oz
• Stocks held by exchanges: 384,000 oz

ETF holdings are the one investment stock observed daily. Johnson Matthey puts them above 3,300,000 oz at the end of 2025, and WPIC counted 3,021,000 oz on 24 June 2026, down 504,000 oz for the year to date. That reversal in platinum investment demand drives the 2026 surplus call; see platinum investment demand.

WPIC counts the 384,000 oz of exchange stocks as 2025 demand; JM does not.

China added a second layer of demand. JM records heavy platinum exports to China in April and May 2025, mainly for jewelry fabrication, and the end in November 2025 of the 13% VAT exemption on platinum sold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Chinese platinum bar and coin investment grew from about 1 tonne in 2019 to nearly 13 tonnes in 2025 (WPIC, 16 July 2026).

Imports are not always consumption; the import data and bonded stocks that link China and the platinum market are covered on China and the platinum market.

What the Deficit Did to Lease Rates and Metal Flows#

The deficit showed up in platinum lease rates: JM reports short-term borrowing rates rising from 3% in late 2024 to around 10% in Q1 2025 and above 20% by mid-2025, as metal moved into NYMEX warehouses and to China.

The flows then reversed: more than 15 tonnes (around 500,000 oz) of platinum was re-exported from Hong Kong to European hubs between August and October 2025, according to JM. WPIC's five-year model assumes a zero net change in exchange stocks each year, because such flows mostly move metal between visible and non-visible inventories.

A platinum lease rate, the annualized cost of borrowing metal, is defined on platinum lease rate.

How Long Will the Platinum Deficit Last?#

WPIC expects the platinum deficit to return after 2026: it forecasts a 2026 surplus but, in its 11 June 2026 five-year outlook (built before that revision), deficits in every year from 2027 to 2030. Johnson Matthey's May 2026 report tables no year beyond 2026.

WPIC's 2027 to 2030 Platinum Balance Outlook#

WPIC's five-year model (Platinum Essentials, 11 June 2026) forecasts platinum deficits of 368,000 oz in 2027, 268,000 oz in 2028, 227,000 oz in 2029 and 494,000 oz in 2030. The table adds tonnage and assumptions.

WPIC in-house model, not Metals Focus data; built before the 9 September 2026 revision that turned 2026 into a surplus.

Metals Focus supplies WPIC one year forward only, so 2027-2030 are WPIC's own figures; mine supply is built strictly from company guidance, and investment from a ten-year average. Balances are one input to any platinum price forecast; named outlooks are compared on platinum price forecast.

What Could Shorten or Extend the Deficit#

Five factors can shorten or extend the platinum deficit: mine supply, recycling growth, investment flows, battery-electric vehicle share and hydrogen demand. They are listed below.

• Mine supply: WPIC calculates that a 5% change in total mine supply moves the balance by an average of 275,000 oz a year over 2026-2029. JM sees South African output near current levels to at least the early 2030s if prices and capital spending allow. Ivanhoe's Platreef (first concentrate 18 November 2025) adds supply from 2026, with Phase 2 targeted for Q4 2027.
• Recycling growth: each year since 2022 has come in below forecast (WPIC), and a further miss widens the deficit.
• Investment flows: investor selling turned WPIC's 2026 forecast from deficit to surplus, while its model assumes a ten-year average.
• Battery-electric vehicle share: WPIC assumes 16% of light vehicles in 2025 and 28% in 2030; a faster shift cuts autocatalyst demand, the link traced in electric vehicles and PGM demand.
• Hydrogen demand: fuel cells and PEM electrolyzers use platinum catalysts, so faster deployment raises demand.

JM states that its 2026 estimates "do not yet capture any downside risk due to military conflict in Iran".

Platinum and the hydrogen economy, from fuel cells to electrolyzers, are covered on platinum and the hydrogen economy.

Is the World Running Out of Platinum?#

No: a platinum deficit means one year's demand exceeded one year's supply, not that platinum is running out; the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 puts world PGM reserves above 76 million kg (76,000 t), 63 million kg of them in South Africa. World platinum mine output was about 170,000 kg (170 t, about 5.47 Moz) in 2025 on the same USGS estimate.

What a deficit does run down is refined metal above ground, and part of that stock cannot be seen: Johnson Matthey states it cannot ascertain whether unsold metal has accumulated in China's bonded zones. How rare platinum is compared with gold is answered on how rare platinum is.

Following the Platinum Market Balance#

The platinum balance is tracked through supply, demand and stock data that WPIC and JM update on fixed calendars. Each input sits within the platinum group metals market as a whole, summarized on the platinum group metals market hub.

Platinum Supply, Demand and Stocks in Detail#

Platinum balance components have five detail pages: supply, demand, above-ground stocks, recycling and investment demand, plus two background pages, listed below.

• Supply: platinum supply by country, from JM's 5,557,000 oz of 2025 primary supply to recycling.
• Demand: platinum demand by sector, from JM's 8,019,000 oz of 2025 demand.
• Stocks, recycling and investment: linked in the stocks, recycling and demand sections above.
• Costs: platinum mining costs, including labor and electricity.
• The element: platinum (Pt), element 78, CAS 7440-06-4.

Deficits in the Other Platinum Group Metals#

Johnson Matthey records deficits in all five PGMs it covers for 2025 and forecasts small 2026 surpluses for palladium and rhodium. The table lists JM's balances; osmium has no published balance from any major research house.

Source: Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report, May 2026 (movement in stocks).

The Deficit and the Platinum Price#

A deficit does not set the platinum price on its own: platinum reached its record of $2,923 per troy ounce on 26 January 2026 (WPIC), and WPIC now forecasts a 2026 surplus after first-half investor selling.

The platinum price today is $1,711.00 per troy ounce (5 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC), shown with gram and kilogram values on platinum price today.

The record depends on the series: Johnson Matthey's base price puts the same peak at $2,860 per troy ounce, $63 lower, so every price here names its series.

Annual averages, highs and lows appear in the platinum price history, tabled year by year on platinum price history.

When New Platinum Balance Data Is Published#

WPIC publishes the Platinum Quarterly four times a year, in mid-May, early-to-mid September, late November and early March, and JM publishes its PGM Market Report each May. On that pattern, the next WPIC edition falls in late November 2026 and the next JM report in May 2027. The release calendars of PGM market reports are listed on PGM market reports.

Platinum Deficit FAQ#

What is the current status of the platinum supply deficit?#

The platinum market is in surplus in 2026 on WPIC's data: WPIC's 9 September 2026 report forecasts a 265,000-oz full-year surplus. Johnson Matthey's May 2026 forecast, on its own basis, is a 371,000-oz deficit.

Does a platinum deficit mean the price will rise?#

No: a deficit is one input to the price, alongside investment flows. For five-year views, see named forecasts on platinum price forecast, not a single number.

Why did WPIC change its 2026 forecast from deficit to surplus?#

WPIC switched because investors sold platinum in the first half of 2026: it now forecasts 83,000 oz of net disinvestment for 2026 (18 May 2026 edition: 519,000 oz of inflows), and its balance forecast moved from a 297,000-oz deficit to a 265,000-oz surplus, a 562,000-oz swing. CEO Trevor Raymond called it "overwhelmingly due to investment outflows that occurred during the first half of the year".

Should I buy platinum because of the deficit?#

DailyPlatinum does not give investment advice; the deficit data on this page is one input. The investing hub compares bars, coins, ETFs and futures for investing in platinum on investing in platinum.

Has anyone counted the world's platinum stocks?#

No: WPIC's above-ground stock figure is modeled, not counted, anchored to one Metals Focus estimate of 3,650,000 oz for 31 December 2018 and rolled forward each year by the balance. The method behind above-ground platinum stocks is explained on above-ground platinum stocks.