Platinum traded near $1,700/oz on October 1 as markets kept digesting the World Platinum Investment Council's swing to a forecast 2026 surplus, even as COMEX platinum stocks sat at a nine-month low. Palladium fell sharply on renewed Fed rate-hike jitters, and Platinum Group Metals Ltd reported early progress on a platinum-palladium drone battery chemistry. Sibanye-Stillwater's East Boulder wage deal, covered here on September 30, remained unresolved at the separate Stillwater East and Columbus sites.
Top stories#
WPIC's 2026 surplus call keeps platinum pinned near $1,700#
Platinum bid $1,701.00/oz at 9:39 a.m. ET on October 1, down $1.00 on the day, according to Kitco's live spot price feed. A market analysis published by broker XTB on September 30 linked the recent pressure to a fundamental revision: the World Platinum Investment Council now forecasts a 2026 surplus of 265,000 ounces, versus a 297,000-ounce deficit it had projected a quarter earlier, a change XTB described as "significant for a market of this size". If realized, that would be platinum's first annual surplus since 2022, after three consecutive years of deficit.
The revision is a demand story rather than a supply one. Mine output is expected to stay roughly flat, at 5,551,000 ounces versus 5,561,000 ounces a year earlier, while total demand is projected to fall 18%, driven mainly by investment demand flipping from a 1.15-million-ounce inflow in 2025 to an 83,000-ounce outflow in 2026, with ETFs alone swinging from a 200,000-ounce gain to a projected 389,000-ounce loss. XTB cautioned the headline number may overstate the physical loosening: WPIC's own report flags that the market could tip back into deficit in the second half of the year once the ETF-driven selling fades, and above-ground stocks have fallen to around 2.01 million ounces, equal to roughly fourteen weeks of demand, even after this year's forecast surplus. XTB also noted that South Africa supplies about 72% of world mine output, which remains 26% below its 2006 peak of 5.3 million ounces. See our platinum price forecast and PGM market supply and demand page.
COMEX platinum stocks hit a nine-month low as palladium stays well supplied#
SMM's weekly PGM review, published September 30, pointed to a widening split in US exchange stockpiles. Registered COMEX platinum inventories stood at about 179,000 oz as of September 25, down roughly 6.4% over 30 days, a nine-month low and in just the third percentile of the historical range, while registered palladium inventories held near 196,800 oz, about 78% of a total 250,000 oz, with US warehouse buffer stocks still close to a one-year high. On trade flows, SMM reported that China's August 2026 imports of unwrought platinum totaled about 8.11 metric tons, down 2.87% month-on-month but up 11.55% year-on-year, while unwrought palladium imports rose to about 3.35 metric tons, up 12.04% month-on-month and 73.58% year-on-year, adding that domestic supply in China remains ample. The thin COMEX platinum float against comparatively flush Chinese stocks illustrates how unevenly the WPIC surplus call is being absorbed across regions. See platinum futures specifications and platinum price chart.
Lion Battery Technologies advances platinum-palladium drone battery chemistry#
Platinum Group Metals Ltd, listed in Toronto and New York, said on Thursday, October 1 that its majority-owned Lion Battery Technologies unit had completed the first phase of independent testing and scale-up of its platinum- and palladium-based lithium-sulphur battery technology. An outside lab, the Battery Innovation Center in Newberry, Indiana, tested prototype lithium-sulphur cells built on Lion's electrode design and found that palladium-rich formulations performed best overall. The next funded phase will build and test pouch-cell prototypes in several configurations and evaluate performance in applications including drones, per the same report. Florida International University's Dr. Bilal El-Zahab said "the catalytic properties of platinum and palladium can help address critical challenges in this chemistry". Johannesburg-listed Valterra Platinum holds a 48% stake in Lion Battery Technologies, and the program has so far been granted eight US patents, with further applications pending. See our Valterra Platinum production page and PGM autocatalyst page for established PGM demand drivers.
Prices and market context#
Platinum bid $1,701.00/oz and palladium bid $1,163.00/oz at 9:39 a.m. ET on October 1, down 0.06% and 2.10% respectively on the day, per Kitco. Over the prior week, XTB said platinum lost more than 3% week-on-week and 2.5% month-on-month, though it remained up about 8.5% over the past twelve months. On the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, SMM reported the most-traded platinum contract ranged between a weekly high of 428.15 yuan/g and a low of 408.90 yuan/g, closing at 420.20 yuan/g on September 30, while the palladium contract closed at 292.20 yuan/g the same day. SMM attributed the week's declines to a US-Iran standoff that pushed oil prices up and revived rate-hike expectations, as US Treasury yields broke above 5.25% and the dollar strengthened.
As background, Mining.com reported on September 25 that TD Securities expects rhodium's market to swing toward surplus, saying weakening auto demand could tip rhodium into surplus by 2027, though scarce inventories leave prices vulnerable to spikes; that is older context, not a fresh development this week. See rhodium price page and PGM metals overview.
What to watch#
- October 2, 2026: US non-farm payrolls data, which SMM flagged as a near-term driver of Fed rate expectations currently weighing on platinum and palladium.
- Ongoing: Resolution of the Stillwater East and Columbus strike at Sibanye-Stillwater's Montana operations, still unsettled after the East Boulder wage agreement reported on September 30.
- Second half of 2026: Whether platinum reverts to the deficit WPIC itself flagged as possible once ETF-driven outflows fade, a test of the 265,000-ounce surplus forecast.
- 2027: TD Securities' rhodium surplus call as a signpost for whether auto-sector PGM demand keeps softening across the basket.
Sources: Kitco (http://www.kitco.com/charts/platinum), XTB Market Analysis (https://www.xtb.com/cy/market-analysis/news-and-research/platinum-surplus-returns-after-three-years-of-deficit-and-price-falls-below-key-support-is-there-a-chance-for-recovery), Shanghai Metals Market (https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104142896-platinum-and-palladium-both-closed-lower-this-week-as-the-holiday-approaches-the-spot-market-is-steeped-in-a-holiday-atmospheresmm-platinum-and-palladium-weekly-review), Mining Weekly via Polity.org.za (https://www.polity.org.za/article/catalytic-power-of-platinum-palladium-being-eyed-for-drones-2026-10-01), Mining.com (https://www.mining.com/td-sees-rhodium-surplus-ending-four-year-squeeze/)